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Harrison: New Generation Will Never Buy Physical Media
Phil Harrison is convinced that the game industry’s future audience will not be reliant on physical forms of media.
Speaking to Edge, the Atari company president said that “there’s a generation of kids being born today and probably already alive who I’m pretty confident will never buy a physical media product. They will never buy a DVD, they will never buy a CD, and they will never buy a game in a box.”
Harrison and Atari CEO David Gardner are already gearing the company towards this perceived trend. Back in September Gardner explained that the future of Atari lies in online play and distribution, with the former EA executive declaring that “within five years 90 per cent of our products will be online.”
I just want one of the big electronic manufactures to make a disc changer that can play 100 different Xbox 360 games. That would be a great solution.
People seem to forget that hard drives WILL eventually fail. Once that happens, all of your music, video, game and photo files are gone unless you have a permanent backup. So some of you may want to risk this type of catastrophe. Personally, I will NEVER buy any media that is not shipped on a physical media nor one that cannot be backed up onto a physical media.
R
P.S. People are listening to comments made by a "guru" from Atari? This isn't 1975, folks....
I respectfully disagree. I believe based on how a lot of digital distribution models are already set up, that you will have an account weather it'd be subscription based or not, and your music/video games/movies would be attached to your account, not your hard drive. If your hard drive dies, you just disable that hard drive from your account (DD models tend to offer downloads to up to 3 devices and/or computers) and add your new hard drive to your account. This is already being utilized and not just for your HDD dying, but if you upgrade, get a new computer, etc. Nothing new.
As for pictures, well I don't think anyone is debating that one. I don't know who doesn't have a digital camera. True that if you don't back those up you're up the creek if your HDD dies, but most people would be able to back up their entire photo collection on one DVD I would think.
I don't care if DD becomes standard as long as it is always an option for us who do prefer it.
The day that games go digital is the day when there is no profit for selling them on hard media.
I do think this will occur in the future. But as long as the Wii is as popular as it is, the games on store shelves, in essence, are a form of advertising. Sony and MS will also keep their games on store shelves so they can advertise against Nintendo.
Now when piracy is more frequent on consoles, like it is with MP3s, I think that's when we'll see digital distribution of gaming software becoming mainstream.
I'm not sure we should be trusting the prognostications of someone who's running a ship with almost no fuel left, and who joined the crew from a company that is not in the best of shape, now, either.
This is especially funny since Harrison was there, with the development of the PS3, talking about how physical distribution is here to stay and that Blu-Ray is the wave of the future.
I have neices and nephews that grew up with digital music. All of them still prefer to buy their games on physical media and often avoid digital only releases. The problem is that they have limited access to money and use the trade-in value of their older games to be able to afford the new ones. Without the trade-in value offset; they wouldn't be able to afford gaming as a hobby and would find something else to do and spend their time with.
There are a couple things that keep them from trading up to the next latest game. Firstly, if the game offers lasting online entertainment that continues to appeal to them, they are more than happy to continue to play a game they already have. Secondly, they are willing to figure out how to get online points to purchase the latest add-ons, map packs and expansions to games they thoroughly enjoy playing. However, in both cases, they usually aren't buying the next new game; again, because they don't have the capitol to spend on new games without the trade-in value incentive.
I believe if the publishers forced their hand and decided to distribute exclusively through the internet; my nieces and nephews would simply find another way to keep themselves busy and entertained. They just wouldn't be able to afford it.
Personally, I don't trade in games; but I also don't have any interest in buying digitally distributed games. Being a collector (I still have my 2600 and games), I see no value in downloading games. How would I be able to play my games 10 or 20 years from now, when those companies have long since ended their network services to be able to update and redownload a piece of software I bought on a system that is no longer manufactured? No thank you. I'll keep my catridges and disks in my closet and entertainment center so I can use them whenever and however I like. Heck, I might even share one with a friend. How am I supposed to do that with a digital download?
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belcaw
"Heck, I might even share one with a friend. How am I supposed to do that with a digital download?"
You nailed it on the head there. That is exactly what publishers don't want. They want everyone to buy their game. They don't want people sharing/trading their games. That is one less copy of the game they will sell. I think if (when) everything goes all the way digital, there will have to be more of an incentive to go digital for some people. Like maybe games will cost only 40 bucks for brand new games. And unfortunately for your nephews, publishers know there are plenty of people who can afford gaming without trading in so they're not going to not use DD just because a certain percentage of people wouldn't be able to afford it anymore. And if your nephews are so willing to just give up their hobby; maybe they're not into it so much after all?
I think if MS sticks around, whatever digital game you buy now will be redownloadable on their new system as long as you carry over your account to it. I guess if they stopped producing consoles at some point as long as you held on to the last iteration you'd be able to play those games on your system since they're right there on your hard drive.
Maybe with DD you can sell your DRM code to whatever game you bought so perhaps there's a way for games to be digital and still have a second hand market. I don't see why they can't do that? The code would only be able to be active on one console at any given time. That could be the best option for retailers and publishers. The retailers could sell the codes in store for download or storage discs for install so they wouldn't be cut out of the deal, and publishers wouldn't piss off consumers by removing their ability to sell or trade their stuff.
I'm not an advocate of DD, I'm just a realist. We may not like the fact that we might not be able to trade in our games any more; I don't like that idea either. But it is inevitable because we unfortunately don't make those choices, and publishers don't make their choices based on what we want, they base their choices on what's best for business. "I won't be able to trade my games in any more" is not an argument that will do anything for publishers. All they're going to say to that is, "Exactly." And if you really think enough people would abandon gaming due to that, well, I guess that's up to the publishers to decide and find out. I'd put my money on no, but I guess in 5 years or so we'll see.
As I said in a previous post, I see more of a dual market between digital and physical, at least in the next generation of consoles. Maybe in the generation after that, consoles will be purely digitally driven when people would have had enough time to adjust (as they clearly have with music).
Rather than make an attempt to rewrite Rob Fahey's article with my own words and opinions, I'll just refer you to his article on this subject. He makes many good points that are, in my opinion, well thought out and relevant to this discussion. You can find it here: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/the-trader-s-dilemma_7
Publishers are not in complete control of this. As an example, Sony is trying very hard to create incentives and games that are digital only; but they just aren't hitting the mass market numbers that a publisher would need in order to make it worthwhile. Wipeout has not sold anywhere near the numbers as it would have if it were available at retail on disk. And my understanding is that Socom has had much larger sales numbers on disk at retail than from PSN as a download.
Publishers can talk all they want about the future being all digital; but until they come up with a compelling way to give us more value from a digital copy of a game over a physical copy, that future will remain a an ideal instead of a reality.
Digital distribution works for music and the music industry because they came up with a way to allow consumers to use their purchases on any and all of the devices that we want. I buy a song once and use it on any and all of my MP3 playing devices. Easy. I can even share that MP3 with a friend if I'd like and let them decide if they want to purchase that song or the whole album. Until games offer this kind of flexibility, I don't see it becoming the dominant distribution method; nor do I want it to be until this kind of value is available to us gamers.
I for one welcome our digitally distributed media. I hate having all these discs and cases and crap taking up space.
Although, I agree, not being able to resale them, or buy them used will kinda suck. But, I guess that's the price for not having clutter.
I would agree with Harrison on the point that this generations doesn't "want" to buy physical media, but when it comes to full-priced games I think they still will because a physical medium still has value after you are done playing with it (resale, e.g.). I don't mind shelling out $5-10 for a downloadable game like Peggle or Pixel Junk Eden, but that is only because they are priced in the same range as rentals. When it coems to games like Gran Turismo 5 Prologue, I regret plunking down $40 to download it because now I have no means to get any of that money back and once mys system is gone, so is the game.
The only thing that will really push downloads of full games will be either a subscription based model or the creations of a viable trading marketplace for downloaded content from one of the console manufacturers.
"The only thing that will really push downloads of full games will be either a subscription based model or the creations of a viable trading marketplace for downloaded content from one of the console manufacturers. "
What makes you think publishers are going to give you that choice? If it is ONLY available as a digital purchase do you really think you're going to stop buying games (full-priced games included)?
"when it comes to full-priced games I think they still will because a physical medium still has value after you are done playing with it (resale, e.g.)."
That's exactly why publishers want to go digital. Resale is killing publishers and DD prevents that. The pleasure of trading in games for an 85% loss may soon be over. Yeah...I'm really going to miss getting raped on my trade-ins. 5 store credit-bucks for my copy of Mass Effect? No thanks.
But I don't think the next generation of systems will be digital only, I just think that both options will exist for every purchase weather it'd be "full-priced" or not (the digital only should be discounted at least ten bucks since the publishers don't have to pay for shipping, the boxes, the production, etc). Judging by these forums and the seeming disdain for digital medium (I don't know why, everyone is happy with their music being digital, why not games?) it doesn't seem as though gamers are ready for a digital-only home console. I'm more than ready for it, so I'll be happy if the option at least exists, especially if it’s discounted.
Don't want to lose 85% of the game value, stop trading at GameStop..
It will be very difficult for publishers to attempt a digital only model as retailers would revolt. Especially if the game is priced lower online that the retail version (pending the retail version didn't provide an incentive). Physical media will not go away next generation and will coincide with digital distribution. Not everyone has internet availability, fast service, or wants to wait for gigs of data to download for the various games they want to play.
Depending on the type of game, I will opt for DD media especially if the game drm is like Sony's.
I think it is very likely that consumers will continue to grow increasingly comfortable with digital distribution (just like they already have for music), but it is a stretch to say they'll "never buy a physical product". That won't happen until these corporations stop double/triple-dipping and sell portability along with the product (so if I buy a song online I can play it on any of my devices without hassle, if I buy a PC game I can transfer it to my new PC without hassle, etc.).
There will be the day when every generation learns that the ability to truly own something, to truly be able to resell an item, adds a value to the product that can drive a purchase decision over anything else.
Mr. Harrison would do well to consider the implications he is making about a coming generation. These kids will have parents who grew up in the great Flame Wars of the 2000s. They will not be taught by whitewash industry propaganda, they will know better than a Hockey Mom buying a Wii because she read an article in a lifestyle magazine. They might even think sitting in front of a screen to play a game is the dumbest thing ever. So please Mr. Harrison, ask your Grandmother how she got her Perm and what she thinks of it. Copy the way you think about that and paste is into the next generation. That's how they will really think of video games.
I think this is more what he would like to happen as opposed to what will happen. The fact is that Atari will probably go under in the next 10 years so if you were to buy a game from them digitally and they offered you no means to write the game to physical media then when they do go pop their servers would go with them and you don't own the game anymore.