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Blu-Ray Sales Predictions Get Gloomy
Despite Adams Media Research projecting back in June that 14.4 million US households would be able to play Blu-Ray movies by the end of the year, a consortium of movie studios and electronics manufacturers estimate that the actual figure is now likely to be closer to 10.5 million.
The consortium, known as the Digital Entertainment Group, specified last week that the user-base of Blu-Ray compatible devices would come mainly through PS3 sales, of which the consortium predicts will have 8 million US users before 2009. Research group Adams Media however estimated in June that over 10 million PS3s would be sold in the US by that time.
The price of Blu-Ray players are taking a considerable drop in America right now in the hope that units for $200 will encourage adoption of the format.
One member of the consortium, Sony Pictures Home Entertainment president David Bishop, said that “the only dark cloud is the economy" before adding that the PS3 sales in America remain on target and "show no slowdown.” Currently there are 5.7 million PS3s in US homes, with Sony expecting that figure to climb another 4-5 million before March. "We remain pretty confident that we'll meet our targets for the fiscal year," said a spokesperson for Sony Computer Entertainment America.
The panel also agreed that the format is very young, having just only just won the format battle with the Toshiba and Microsoft-backed HD-DVD format. DVD revenue continues to fall, dropping 6 percent through 2008.
Source: Associated Press
I do own a portable digital music player but i dont have whole cds on it just alot of choice songs when it comes to music if i find a cd i want to own I go to FYE and buy it then listen to it in my car music has really always been a highly portable form of entertainment from going for walks to driving movies on the other hand are alot more of an at home form of entertainment your relaxing you pop in a movie that u enjoy i can see dd movies for things like your psp but even that didnt get used much when I was on the go its nice to have but not really a good form of mobile entertainment ppl like to own objects at home thats actually the point of having a home to have things in it the dvd and bluray are normal parts of ppls home lives and i dont beleive there going anywhere netime soon
Fair enough.
My car has an aux input in it (most new cars have that now) so I plug in my digital music player. I used to bring those cd holders into my car and would switch between the CDs I want to listen to, but with my DMP I have a couple thousand songs I can listen to and I don't have to lug one CD into my car.
As far as the DVD thing, my wall of DVDs was more of a headache than anything. I eventually ran out of space on my rack (plus my 2-3 year old kids would tear them down and I'd have to put them back up and I did so in alphabetical order cause I'm just like that and I got tired of doing that) so I just bought a mini-suitcase sized disc holder to put them in. Personal preference? Sure. I just want the same convenience I for my movies that I get for my music.
It’s anyone's guess how fast DD for movies will take off. When it finally does, I'll send you a big "I told ya so." ^^
I have to add my agreement with Nick on this topic. I hate having a mountain of DVD cases in my living room taking up space. I hate having to have CD towers full of CDs all over my house, taking up space. Heck, I even hate to have cases and cases of video games in my bookcase, taking up space (we won't include the 490 NES cartridges, as that's obviously an unusual circumstance.) If I could have all that shit in one, easily accessible hard drive, giving me access to any movie, game or song I wanted, in a instant, without all this crap taking up space, I would be one happy guy. And if I want to take some of it on the road? Just plug a portable device in and move over whatever I wanted. Concerned about losing all of it? Drop $150 for a backup drive, problem solved. This is, of course, my personal preference, but I see DD as a time, space and efficiency saver. I can't WAIT to not have to store and/or possibly damage physical media anymore.
Hell, I would be happy too if DD would be king. Still, I have some doubts about all this "have all that shit in one, easily accessible hard drive, giving me access to any movie, game or song I wanted, in a instant" thing.
Don't want to sound like a Blu-Ray enthusiast (because I'm not one) but good luck having Metal Gear Solid 4 on a hard drive. Backup copies and cartridges, even dvds can be stored on an hdd, no problem. Triple A monsters can't, so this "all our crap on one hdd" speak sounds a bit unsatisfactory to me (I remember having all these space issues on my terabyte PC before).
Oh and somehow I like having some games in their physical form.
honestly when renting id love to use dd its easy and theres no need to leave the house but when I decide to own a movie id rather have the physical object , I realise that this is only an opinion but I think many others feel the same way I mean somthing really doesnt feel owned if theres no physical object to justify ownership.
Ryda do you have a portable digital media player? If you do, I find it somewhat hypocritical that you want to physically own your movies but you’re ok with not physically owning your music. What’s the difference between digital music and digital movies?
But as you say, that's your opinion and I'm not going to say it's wrong, I just don't understand it.
"What’s the difference between digital music and digital movies?"
Size?
Obviously that's a difference. What I was asking was for Ryda, and what's the difference to him why he doesn't mind having his music digital but he doesn't want movies stored digitally. There's obviously all kinds of differences when it comes to auido files when compared to video files; that's not what I was asking smart ass! ^^
Sorry for being laconic and saying the obvious (smart ass), but have to say it again.
There is a huge difference when it comes to store mp3s and movies on a console. Two or three dvds would simply eat all the space on my 360 and Siren: Blood Curse and Ratchet (plus Burnout Paradise) would fill up my PS3's hdd. It's all about the size of these files.
Size.
Ok, I get the size issue. But one day size won't be an issue any more. And with subscription services like Netflix for only 9 bucks a month you sorta have a virtually library of movies at your disposal (and size isn't an issue). You can watch a new movie every day, or you could watch the same one over and over, you can watch one today, watch a different movie the next, then watch that first movie again two weeks later. It really is like having a virtual catalog of movies (albeit small and rather crappy so far) you just don't physically own them.
But you're right. But size wasn't Ryda's problem, you were answering his question with your opinion. Ryda was saying he wanted to have something he could hold in his hand/show off as opposed to digitally owning it. So my original question to him which he hasn't answered, was why does he not care that his music is stored digitally with no physical disc to hold on to, but he doesn't want to store his movies the same way? Either way, its all opinion.
I took netflix for a spin today on my 360 and its cool, and for only 9 bucks for unlimited downloads I'm all over that. I just wish the selection was better. The 360's own video marketplace has a decidedly better selection already, so its a bit discouraging so far.
Again with the NaySaying? You guys don't sleep? Do you actually play games or dump on SONY only posts?
Im not saying it will be the end all be all to push through hdtv sales just that it will contribute and yur speculation of them being server side is exactly that not to mention that like 30% of the american population is not online and a greater number cant even get cable modem so how do u get your opinions I know a bunch of ppl who cant even get online due to them living in the country, if u go ask any average joe there not even aware of digital downloads being an option damn alot of ppl still dont know how to use the internet yur acting like the majority of ppl are as tech savy as we seem to be which in reality isnt actually the case.Im not saying digital downloads are impossible but there definitely not going to be the standard at least for another 10 to 20 years,I bet there not the standard in even your house nick dvds still dominate your movie collection im sure and everyone seemed to miss the fact that in most stores all you can find is hdtvs if you want a new one thats pretty much the only choice you have
I'm not entirely convinced that the target market for Blu Ray is country bumpkins who live so far away from an Urban centre that they can't even get online...
The sad fact of the matter that everyone seems to be ignoring is that the benefits BluRay brings are minimal and really only benefit people with large HD TV's and fancy surround sound systems. Fact is if i was a country bumpkin I could understand the benefits of DVD over VHS (looks better on my current tv, doesn't need to be re-wound, can be played in multi devices such as PCs, can contain multiple languages & subtitles).
This 'next generation' has been forced on us by greedy film companies who just want to sell us our favourite movies yet again. The next proper shift will be to digital download which has tangible benefits (instant access, huge catalogue, usable on multiple devices such as mobile phones etc, cuts out the middle man hence likely cheaper and so on) - In my opinion BluRay will mostly just be useful for its larger storage capacity
I'll give you that a lot of what I was saying is just speculation (more like optimism). I've already checked up on a lot of movie download boxes and it’s easier than you think. You hook the box to your TV, hook the internet into it, then click the movies you want to buy, they download, then you watch. As the user you only know that you clicked the movie you want, then it came on. You don't have to KNOW you're downloading it, as far as you know, the movie is shows up like magic.
Yeah, I also agree that cable internet is still making its way to a lot of places.
I do have to argue that if some person isn't that tech savvy, they probably are just fine with their standard DVD player, and don't really care too much about BluRay.
10-20 years seems a bit too long from now, I really see within 5 years it'll be pretty big. But you're right, I'm just guessing here, and we both could be wrong (or right). As far as DVD the standard in my house? No, I don't by DVDs any more. After HD-DVD burned me I started downloading all my movies on my Xbox, (that's the only way for me to get new HD movies since I won't buy a BluRay player and they don't make HD DVDs any more). While we're talking, I found online there are two BluRay players on the market that are under $200 USD. I was considering getting a BluRay player until Netflix announced HD movie downloads for the 360. For 15 bucks a month I'll have near instant access to who knows how many hundreds of movies (and I don't have to store them on my HDD) and a lot of them in HD.
Check this out for easy and affordable DD movie sweetness. http://www.vudu.com/product_vudu.html
This one for now only allows SD movie purchases and SD/HD movie RENTALS. From what I've gathered from talking to some people at best buy, it will soon allow HD movie purchases. They have two boxes, one with a 250 gig HDD, and one with a 1terabyte HDD. Digital movie downloads are already here.
Im sure the bluray format will take off and this is not another sony fanboy rant just logical conclusions, I mean if you go into any stores that sell tvs 99.9 % of them are HD and to upgrade is really the only choice if you need a new tv, Not to mention there forcing everyone to switch to digital programming at the end of the year. The new format will push the rise in hd tv sales which in part will push the rise of bluray players and so on. The arguments that digital downloads will soon take over is honestly ridiculous given the fact that the amount of memory needed to hold 100s of high definition dvds w 5.1 surround sound is absurd,Most ppl like the look of having a collection of dvds and thats not gonna change any time soon not to mention wut happens when your hard drive takes a dump w 100s of dollars worth of movies on them are you really gonna want to back all that up possibly several times. having a couple songs and maybe 1 or 2 movies is one thing put ppl like the boxes and the boxsets just to be like "look wut ive got" .
Not to mention there forcing everyone to switch to digital programming at the end of the year. The new format will push the rise in hd tv sales
No. The new Digital broadcast format will push the uptake of digital converter boxes. Let's assume you are the average consumer. Feb. 17, 2009 rolls around and your tv stops working. The tv is still fine, you just can't get the new signal.
So off to the store you go. When you get there, you see all these $400+ tvs on the shelf. You start looking at those options. While your browsing you notice a $50 box that promises to give you back your tv channels and then some. You think to yourself, "Should I buy me a new $400+ tv and get my channels back or should I get a $50 box and get my channels back?"
Next thing you know you are in the check out line with your $50 converter box and start watching all your channels again.
Sure you will have more people buying HD tvs at that time, but it will not be nearly enough to increase Bluray sales for several more years.
To piggy back on what Zach is saying; the digital switch will not affect probably 80% of TV owners. Non HDTV's TVs are digital. Digital doesn't mean HD, not at all. If you've purchased your TV in the last 10 years, its digital. Unless you have a bunny ear TV, you're good to go. Has nothing to do with HDTV. My 19in P.O.S. TV with now av inputs is digital for crying out loud. Do some research ryda before you make statements like those. I know you're just trying to prove your point, but HDTV and digital TV are two completely separate things. And if you do happen to own a TV from 1985, there are digital converter box coupons you can get where you almost pay nothing for the boxes. But if you have a TV that old, it’s time to get a new one (remember, doesn't have to be HD, no TVs are sold today that are not digital).
And as far as Digital Distribution goes, as I've said already in this thread, most likely there will be an option for server side downloads. Although you will "own" the movie, it won't physically occupy space on your HDD. Everything you buy is kept on your account, so when you want to watch it, you just click it. With bandwidth only getting faster/cheaper, and more readily available, wait-times for HD movie downloads will be near zero. And if you do store your movies on an HDD, your account will keep record of what movies you've purchased just in case your HDD dies, then you just redownload. What happens if your MP3 player "dies"? Well, you just go back to Rhapsody or iTunes and get your songs you already purchased back. I don't why there is this resisteance to DD HD movies, are we back in the 80s people? Did we already forget that CDs are obsolete for music? No one carries around a portable CD player any more.
Whether people like it or not, DD for HD movies will one day be standard and you can stay in the technology past if you so desire, I won't. You don't happen to have a VHS player still do you? Do you cherish the crap load of space your cassettes take up? No. Who WANTS a huge wall of space taken up so you can "show off" what you have? I don't need to impress anyone with my massive walls of wasted space. I have over 300 movies; I could care less if anyone knows that. “You have 300 DVDs? Well, I have 350! Check out my wall of DVDs! Impressive isn’t it?” Naa, not for me.
itunes isn't really a great example Nick. If you lose your hard copy you're screwed, even with receipt emails, you have to shell out again.
Really? When you buy your music its not attached to your account??? I use rhapsody which actually functions as a subscription service (awesome by the way) if you so desire. Music you purchase online the old fasioned way (non subscription) stays in your play list under your login/profile. You can have up to 3 portable devices and allow streaming/sharing to up to 3 other local computers. If somehow your MP3 player dies, not only do you have 2 more MP3 player slots, but you can always disallow the broken one and you're back to having 3 slots. I assumed itunes being around for so long that they'd have as awesome of a feature as that, guess not...my mistake.
4-5 million new PS3s in us homes before March? I can see them maybe selling up to 2 million in the run up to Christmas after which the numbers will no doubt return to the usual 200000 per month (unless they cut the price), so less than half of what they are saying. And this is assuming the low price of the 360 and the somewhat dodgy economy has no real effect on PS3 sales.
Anyone got any figures that might cast some light on what seems a rather wild prediction from Sony?
I agree with frostquake. The economy combined with the high price of disks and players is part of the reason behind the slow uptake of Bluray.
However, there is a larger reason for this slow uptake and it is the fact that somewhere between 80-90% of the US population still own only a standard definition television. Why would someone buy Bluray if it is not compatible with their television.
If Bluray wants to succeed as a format, they need to start working on getting the majority of movie viewers to switch to HD TVs first. Only then will they see a significant growth.
Working directly in the industry, we have seen a major decline in buying Blu-Ray products. The magic price for Blu-Ray discs right now is anything $19.99 or below. Even Blu-Ray player owners are opting for the cheaper dvd's right now, telling me they will start buying Blu-Ray discs again when the economy gets better. I own a PS3 and had been buying any new release Blu-Ray disc that I could find on sale for $20.00 or less, but now that my portfolio has taken a significant hit, and continues to do so, my family only buys new releases on dvd's, which we can typically find for around $13.99. In an economy where people start counting dollars and trying to make that dollar stretch even further, Blu-Ray players and even Blu-Ray disks all of sudden become a higher end luxury that can wait, and we all know what waiting can do to an industry like this!
Till my family see's the economy take a permanent up swing and stabilize for a significant amount of time, we will no longer be buying Blu-Ray discs at all, instead resorting to either buying the cheaper dvd's with an intention of buying them on Blu-Ray later on down the road or out right renting the movies from Netflix or Redbox. Sad but true!
A year and a half after buying my PS3, I own *two* Blu-Ray discs. The rest I rented from Netflix.
Cost is a major factor in most people's buying decisions; much more so with the economy in the toilet as of late. I've seen a number of older Blu-Ray titles on sale for around $15-20. It was only recently that new titles were released at $20. That should increase sales, but it's still enough of a price differential to drive most to still-cheaper ($4-15) DVDs. If Sony really wants to spur sales, they need to drop prices on players and discs NOW, before broadband offerings become entrenched; it's just a matter of time.
HD over broadband is not an option in my area at the moment, as Comcrap refuses to replace it's ancient cables (or lower it's astronomical pricing in Baltimore) and Verizon is still teasing us with the possibility of FiOS. In the meantime, we're stuck with "1.5Mbps" at the farthest end of a Verizon DSL connection. When it works, streamed content is great (at SD resolution or lower), but repeated buffering makes it fairly unwatchable most of the time.